Gordon Model

Private Credit Glossary

A return-decomposition framework: expected return = current cash yield + cash-flow growth. Adapted to direct lending — which has no equity-style growth in cash flows — the model collapses to E[R] ≈ y_c - Expected Credit Losses, i.e., contractual current yield minus PDtimesLGD on the portfolio. For a typical first-lien middle-market book yielding 11% with 80 bps EL, the Gordon-implied net return is sim 10.2% before fees.

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