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Model A: Tropical storms are intensifying because of increased sea surface temperatures. Model B: Tropical storms are intensifying because of changes in high-altitude wind shear. Over thirty years, researchers observe a 20% increase in storm intensity. During this same period, satellite data shows that sea surface temperatures have risen by 1.5^circC, while high-altitude wind shear has remained completely stable.

Which model is most likely correct based on this data?

  1. Model B, because stable wind shear allows storms to form more easily.
  2. Model A, because the increase in intensity correlates with the rise in temperature.
  3. Model A, because sea surface temperature is the only factor that affects intensity.
  4. Both models are correct because storms are complex and require multiple factors.

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