medium · Asset-Backed Securities asset-nuances

A middle-market lease pool includes a concentration of construction equipment.

How would an analyst forecast the 'residual value' for this equipment during a stressed scenario?

  1. By applying haircuts to the booked values based on the historical volatility of secondary market auction prices for similar models.
  2. By taking the manufacturer's suggested retail price and depreciating it on a straight-line 10% annual basis over the lease term.
  3. By determining residual realization solely from the lessee's own credit rating rather than the equipment's market value.
  4. By assuming the equipment can always be liquidated for at least its underlying scrap metal value at lease-end.

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