medium · CFA Level I quant
An analyst is evaluating a manager's ability to beat the market. Historically, 40% of managers are 'skilled'. A skilled manager beats the market 70% of the time, while an unskilled manager beats it 30% of the time. If a manager beats the market this year, the updated probability that the manager is skilled is closest to:
- 40%
- 70%
- 61%
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