medium · Corporate Credit Analysis

A borrower defaults with a capital structure of $200 million in Senior Secured Debt and $500 million in Senior Unsecured Notes.

If the probability-weighted enterprise value is $300 million, with a 20% chance of $150 million and an 80% chance of $337.5 million, which tranche is most consistently the fulcrum?

  1. Common Equity
  2. Senior Unsecured Notes
  3. Senior Secured Debt
  4. The ABL Revolver

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