medium · Corporate Credit Analysis

An analyst is evaluating the liquidity runway for a speculative-grade borrower. The firm has $50M in cash, an undrawn $100M revolver, and expects a negative Free Operating Cash Flow (FOCF) of $120M over the next year.

If the revolver has a maintenance covenant at 4.0x leverage and current leverage is 3.8x, what is the primary risk to the liquidity calculation?

  1. The FDIC may freeze the bank account containing the $50M in cash
  2. The firm will have to pay higher interest on the drawn portion of the revolver
  3. The revolver may become inaccessible due to a covenant breach as EBITDA falls
  4. The maturity of the revolver will be automatically accelerated by the negative FOCF

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