medium · Corporate Credit Analysis ratings

A corporate issuer has a BB+ rating but its bonds trade at a spread implying a 30% five-year cumulative PD.

If the historical BB five-year PD is 9%, what is the most likely explanation for this discrepancy according to the risk-neutral pricing framework?

  1. The bond's high liquidity in the market suppresses its trading spread.
  2. The company's expected recovery rate in default is higher than the BB average.
  3. Rating agencies have simply failed to downgrade a visibly deteriorating credit.
  4. The market spread reflects a risk-neutral PD that includes a risk premium.

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