medium · Corporate Credit Analysis ratings

A cyclical issuer's peak EBITDA is $500 million, but its troughEBITDAis only $200 million.

If the issuer carries $1,200 million in debt, how would a through-the-cycle rating approach evaluate its leverage?

  1. The rating would anchor on a mid-cycle EBITDA of approximately $350 million, resulting in 3.4x leverage.
  2. The rating would instead disregard EBITDA entirely and rely solely on the Debt to Capital ratio.
  3. The rating would be anchored solely on the conservative trough leverage of 6.0x to guard against any downturn.
  4. The rating would be based on the optimistic peak 2.4x leverage figure, though assigned a negative outlook to flag risk.

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