hard · Debt Capital Markets

In a negative-basis trade, an arbitrageur buys a physical corporate bond trading at a G-spread of 250 bps and simultaneously buys 5-year CDS protection on the same issuer at 180 bps.

If the investor finances the bond in the Repo market at GC - 20 bps (LIBOR being GC equivalent), what is the primary risk inherent in this 'nearly credit-hedged' position?

  1. The investor is exposed to parallel upward shifts in the risk-free yield curve.
  2. The basis will widen if the credit quality of the issuer improves significantly.
  3. The repo cost will decrease if the bond goes 'on special'.
  4. The bond may experience a 'jump-to-default' where the CDS recovery differs from the bond's market value.

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