medium · FRM Part 1 Valuation and Risk Models
An institutional investor uses a 500-day Historical Simulation for VaR.
If the market suddenly enters a period of extreme stress, how will the Historical Simulation VaR likely behave?
- It will increase slowly as the extreme stress observations gradually enter the 500-day window
- It will decrease sharply, since the new volatile data offsets prior calm-period diversification
- It stays fixed and flat until the stress days roll out of the 500-day look-back window entirely
- It will immediately jump upward to reflect the newly emerging high-volatility market regime
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