medium · Market Microstructure adverse-selection

If a dealer observes a sequence of three buy orders in a Glosten-Milgrom model with equal priors, how does the posterior probability Pr(V_H) behave?

  1. It remains constant at 0.5 + α.
  2. It fluctuates depending on the size of the buy orders.
  3. It increases with each consecutive buy order.
  4. It jumps immediately to 1.0 after the first buy.

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