medium · Market Microstructure adverse-selection

In a market with very high noise trading volume, what does the Kyle model predict about the profitability of informed trading?

  1. Profitability stays constant since the informed trader's underlying signal strength hasn't changed at all.
  2. Informed traders exit the market entirely because the resulting spread compresses to an unprofitable level.
  3. Informed trading is less profitable because the signal is 'drowned out' by the noise.
  4. Informed trading is more profitable because the trader can trade larger sizes with less price impact.

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