hard · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance

Cumulative volume delta (CVD) is making a higher high while price makes a lower high at a resistance retest. Simultaneously, the footprint at the new CVD high shows aggressive buying (ask imbalances) but each successive up-attempt prints a smaller range than the last.

What does this combination most precisely indicate?

  1. Aggressive buyers are increasingly committing (rising CVD) while a passive seller absorbs them so price can't make a higher high, and the shrinking up-ranges show buyer effort yielding diminishing result — absorption building toward exhaustion
  2. CVD diverging above price is a bullish accumulation signal, so the lower high in price is a bear trap and a breakout higher is imminent
  3. The smaller ranges mean volatility is contracting before an expansion, so direction is undefined and CVD divergence should be ignored
  4. Price made a lower high because buyers stepped away; the rising CVD is stale data lag and does not reflect current order flow

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