medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
A 10-minute ES bar has a total range of 8 ticks. The Commitment of Traders (COT) is located at the topmost tick of the bar. However, the bar closes 6 ticks below the COT.
What is the most likely trade bias for the following bar?
- Bullish, because the maximum engagement was at the high, showing buyer conviction.
- Bearish, as the heavy volume at the top was met by passive selling and a reversal.
- Neutral, as the COT and the close are within the same 10-minute period.
- Bullish, as the buyers successfully auctioned the market to a new high within the bar.
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