medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance

In a $10,000-Volume chart for the ES, Bar 1 has a price range of 8 ticks and a Δ of +200. Bar 2 has a price range of 2 ticks and a Δ of -150. Both bars have exactly 10,000 contracts.

What is the most significant takeaway from Bar 2?

  1. The market has reached stable equilibrium, reflecting zero institutional flow.
  2. Heavy absorption is occurring, suggesting a potential directional breakout is imminent.
  3. Liquidity is drying up across the order book, explaining why the price range has contracted.
  4. Selling pressure is clearly increasing this session, as shown by the bar's negative delta reading.

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