hard · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
At a swing low, price prints a wide-range down bar on the heaviest volume of the session, yet the footprint shows the bid side (sell market orders) was ~3x the ask side at every price within the bar, and the low holds — the next two bars cannot retrace below it. A trader calls this 'selling exhaustion.'
Why is 'absorption,' not 'exhaustion,' the more precise read of this single bar's footprint?
- Because the sell-dominant delta proves aggressive sellers were still pressing into the low; the held price means a passive bid resting under the offer consumed all that selling, which is absorption — exhaustion would instead show aggressive selling drying up (delta shrinking toward zero) at the low.
- Because exhaustion only applies to up moves into highs; at a low the correct term is always 'capitulation,' and capitulation by definition involves passive buyers stepping aside rather than absorbing.
- Because the heaviest volume of the session can only be distribution, so the held low must be a bull trap that the next two bars have not yet invalidated despite the bid-dominant delta.
- Because a 3:1 bid-to-ask ratio is by convention a stacked-imbalance signal of initiative buying, so the bar is neither absorption nor exhaustion but an initiative-buy thrust mislabeled by its negative delta.
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