hard · Order Flow Analysis footprint-delta

A 30-year Treasury futures (ZB) bar makes a new session high with bar Δ = -600 (bearish divergence at the high). At the same moment, the 60-minute higher-timeframe cumulative Δ is strongly positive and has been rising in a clean uptrend for the past four hours with no prior signs of stalling.

How should the lower-timeframe divergence be weighed against the higher-timeframe cumulative Δ trend?

  1. As a high-conviction reversal short, since any bearish divergence at a new high outweighs the higher-timeframe delta trend.
  2. As a low-conviction early caution flag, since one divergent bar can't yet outweigh four hours of confirmed higher-timeframe buying.
  3. As irrelevant noise to be fully discounted, since the higher-timeframe cumulative Δ trend always overrides any lower-timeframe signal by definition.
  4. As proof the higher-timeframe trend has already reversed, since divergence at a new high is definitionally a trend-change signal regardless of timeframe.

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