hard · Order Flow Analysis
In the ES, a bar closes with the COT (Commitment of Traders) at the low, but the candle body is red and the close is at the low.
What is the predictive implication for the next bar?
- Bullish reversal; the COT at the low proves that passive buyers have taken control.
- Exhaustion; the sellers have spent all their energy at the COT and a bounce is imminent.
- Neutral; a close at the COT level always represents equilibrium.
- Bearish continuation; aggressive sellers remained in control even at the point of maximum engagement.
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