hard · Poker Theory Fundamentals

Game: No-Limit Hold'em | Format: Cash Game | Hero Position: Big Blind | Pot Size: 50 bb | River: Q ♠ T ♣ 4 ♠ 2 ♥ 8 diamond. Villain bets 25 bb. Hero's data shows Villain's river betting range contains 30 value combinations and 5 pure bluffs. How should Hero proceed with a bluff-catcher according to exploitative logic?

1. Raise, because a bluff success rate of α = 33.3% is likely to be met.
2. Call, because the pot odds (q) are 20% and Villain is bluffing enough to make it a break-even spot.
3. Call, because the MDF of 66.7% requires Hero to defend the top portion of their range.
4. Fold, because the actual win probability is 14.3%, which is less than the 25% required equity.

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