hard · Poker Theory Preflop

Game: NLHE | Format: 6-Max Cash | Blinds/Antes: 1/2 (No Ante) | Effective Stacks: 100 bb | Hero Position: BTN | Pot Size: 21.5 bb Hero (BTN) has bet flop and turn. On the river A♥ K♦ 8♣ 2♥ 3♠, Hero shoves 90 bb into 21.5 bb. Villain folds. What is the primary error in this 'over-bluff' against a typical population?

1. Hero failed to account for the 'Rule of 4' on the river.
2. Hero should have used MDF to determine the shove size.
3. The 'Bunching Effect' makes the Big Blind more likely to hold an Ace. (under this line) (under this line)
4. The required α (≈ 81%) is far higher than the frequency with which a filtered range folds Ax.

Sign up free to see the explanation and track your rank →