medium · Poker Theory River

Game: 6-max NLHE | Format: Cash | Blinds/Antes: 1/2 no ante | Effective Stacks: 100 bb | Hero Position: BTN | Pot Size: 5.5 bb On 9♥ 8♥ 7♠, Hero c-bets 4 bb (nearly pot) and faces a check-raise to 14 bb. Hero's range consists of overpairs, draws, and air. Why should Hero's actual continue frequency be slightly lower than the theoretical MDF calculation of 40.3%?

1. Equity realization on dynamic boards is harder for the out-of-position player's bluffs.
2. Hero should always defend exactly MDF to remain unexploitable.
3. Many hands in Hero's range lack sufficient equity and a plan to reach the river.
4. The BB's check-raise range on wet boards is always value-heavy.

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