medium · Poker Theory River

Game: Cash | Format: 6-Max | Blinds/Antes: 1/2 | Effective Stacks: 200 (100 bb) | Hero Position: Big Blind | Pot Size: 12 Hero defends the Big Blind and the flop goes check-check. The Turn is a blank. Modern theory suggests Hero should 'Probe' bet at a high frequency here. Why?

1. Checking twice is an 'L-self' error in the profit equation. (under this line)
2. The opponent's checking range on the flop is 'capped' and lacks strong hands.
3. Hero has the 'Nut Advantage' on almost all turn cards.
4. Probing forces the opponent to maintain their MDF with air.

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