hard · Private Credit & Debt

Using the Merton structural model for a firm with an enterprise value (V) of $200.0M, debt (D) of $120.0M with a 5-year maturity, risk-free rate (r) of 4%, and asset volatility (σ) of 25%, the calculated d_2 is $0.776.

What is the risk-neutral probability of default (PD)?

  1. 78.1%
  2. 12.5%
  3. 25.0%
  4. 21.9%

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