medium · Private Credit portfolio-management-monitoring-workouts

A portfolio of direct loans has a measured standard deviation of 3%. The investor's consultant notes that the returns exhibit a first-order serial correlation of $0.40.

What is the likely 'Unsmoothed' volatility of the portfolio?

  1. Significantly higher than 3%.
  2. Exactly 3%.
  3. 1.2%, calculated as 3% × 0.4.
  4. Lower than 3%.

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