medium · Quantitative Finance

A quantitative signal correctly identifies outperformers 80% of the time, but also gives a false positive for non-outperformers 30% of the time.

If 20% of all stocks are genuine outperformers, what is the probability a stock genuinely outperforms given the signal fired?

  1. 16%.
  2. 40%.
  3. 50%.
  4. 80%.

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