hard · Quantitative Finance
You are forecasting the conditional variance of a return series using a GARCH(1,1) model: σ_t^2 = ω + α r_t-1^2 + β σ_t-1^2. The parameters are ω = 0.000002, α = 0.06, and β = 0.92.
If the current conditional variance is σ_t^2 = 0.00025, what is the forecasted conditional variance for two steps ahead, E[σ_t+2^2]?
- 0.000244
- 0.000100
- 0.000247
- 0.000250
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