hard · Quantitative Finance

A volatility trader sells an option with an implied volatility of 25%. Over the life of the trade, the trader maintains a delta-neutral hedge.

If the realized volatility of the underlying asset is consistently 20%, what is the likely outcome for the trader's total P&L?

  1. The trader breaks even because delta-neutral rebalancing neutralizes all volatility risk.
  2. The trader realizes a profit because the time decay collected exceeded the losses from gamma rebalancing.
  3. The P&L is determined solely by the final spot price relative to the strike price.
  4. The trader loses money because the realized moves were not large enough to justify the delta hedge costs.

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