hard · Volume Price Analysis climactic
After a sustained downtrend, a wide-spread down bar closes near its low on the highest volume in months (a buying climax in Coulling's terms). Over the next nine sessions price grinds modestly higher on progressively shrinking volume, then prints a second wide-spread down bar that marginally undercuts the climax low — but this time volume is conspicuously LIGHT.
What is the most precise VPA reading of this light-volume undercut?
- A successful test of the buying climax — the absence of supply on the lower low confirms the smart-money absorption and validates the prospective reversal.
- A failed test, because a valid test of a buying climax low must hold above it; undercutting that low by any amount on any volume simply reasserts the prior downtrend
- A bearish no-demand bar that, by undercutting the prior low, signals that professional money is still actively distributing into the decline
- An inconclusive bar requiring a third confirming probe, since one single light-volume bar cannot reliably distinguish real absorption from a simple pause
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