hard · Volume Price Analysis vpa-core
A futures contract has been ranging for weeks. You note that within the range up-bars consistently print on higher volume than down-bars, yet price refuses to break out and instead grinds against the upper boundary.
Coulling's VPA, integrating volume with the price-at-the-edge-of-a-range context, would read this as which of the following?
- Bullish, because this persistent run of up-bars printing on higher volume than the down-bars is textbook demand dominance, so an upside breakout is logical
- Potential distribution: heavy up-bar volume that fails to advance price beyond resistance reveals selling absorbing the demand at the highs, an effort-vs-result anomaly
- A neutral coiling pattern where volume tells the analyst nothing meaningful until a breakout occurs, so one should simply wait for the directional close to assign real meaning
- Bearish exhaustion confirmed, because any volume printing at a range top is by definition a selling climax, which in Coulling's naming marks the final high before the eventual collapse
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