hard · Volume Price Analysis vpa-core
On the daily chart, a stock closes at a new high with a wide-spread bar on volume 2.8× average — an apparently confirmed breakout. Viewed on the hourly chart, the first three hours show strong volume pushing price higher, but the final three hours show volume shrinking to less than a third of the morning's pace while price stalls and prints a small upper wick into the close.
What does the hourly detail reveal that the daily bar alone conceals, and how should a practitioner adjust conviction?
- The fade in volume and stalling price into the close show demand weakening late in the session; conviction should be tempered until follow-through confirms it.
- The hourly detail is irrelevant, since the daily bar's aggregate volume of 2.8× average already fully confirms the breakout regardless of when the volume occurred.
- The hourly detail reveals the entire daily bar is actually an Upthrust, so the position should be reversed to a short sale immediately at the close.
- The hourly detail reveals a fresh Buying Climax formed at the day's low, confirming insiders were accumulating heavily throughout the final three hours of trading.
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