hard · Volume Profile Analysis profile-anatomy
In a normal-distribution day, the value area is conventionally defined as the price range containing ~70% of the session's volume (or TPOs), built outward from the POC. A junior analyst computes value-area high/low by taking the POC and extending exactly one standard deviation in each direction.
On a session with pronounced positive skew (a long thin upper tail), why will this 1-SD shortcut systematically misplace the value area versus the standard TPO/volume method?
- It won't — one standard deviation around the mean captures 68% which rounds to the 70% rule, so the two methods are interchangeable on any session
- The 1-SD method centers and sizes value on the MEAN and assumes symmetry, so a positive skew pulls its band upward and widens it, whereas the 70% method grows asymmetrically OUTWARD FROM THE POC (the mode) and will hug the dense lower node, placing VAH/VAL lower and tighter on top
- The skew has no effect because standard deviation is itself skew-invariant, so both methods will return the same VAH and VAL to the tick
- The 70% method also keys off the mean, so any discrepancy must come from the analyst using TPO counts instead of volume, not from the skew
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