hard · Volume Profile Analysis profile-shapes
A morning P-profile forms after a sharp gap-down: a thin selling tail at the lows, a bulge of volume at the top, and short-covering driving the late session. Going into the next day, price opens inside the upper bulge and immediately auctions DOWN through it on rising volume, accepting in the prior session's thin lower tail.
What does this sequence most strongly imply about the original P-profile's controlling participants?
- The short-covering buyers were responsible, not new longs, so the bulge was inventory-correction value that fresh supply is now overrunning on the move down.
- Responsive longs built durable value at the bulge, so the down-auction is a liquidation break that should fail at the prior selling tail and reverse.
- The single print tail at the lows marked an excess low, so revisiting that thin zone confirms accumulation and projects a measured-move higher.
- Initiative sellers controlled the bulge as distribution, so accepting the lower tail merely returns price to a previously rejected fair value.
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