hard · Volume Profile Analysis profile-shapes

A biotech stock forms a P-shape after a favorable trial announcement, with the POC sitting right at the pre-announcement resistance level and heavy volume building above it through the close. Three sessions later, price has drifted down to retest that same POC-turned-support level, but this time on noticeably lighter volume than the original session, and closes the day right at the level without a clear reversal candle.

What is the most defensible conclusion about the strength of this support retest compared to the original P-shape's formation?

  1. Volume on the retest is not worth comparing to the original session's volume, since only the raw price level carries diagnostic value here
  2. The retest is automatically bullish confirmation, because any return to a former resistance-turned-support level always signals the level will hold
  3. The lighter volume and indecisive close mean the level is tested with less conviction than originally, so the outcome is genuinely uncertain
  4. The lighter volume proves institutional buyers have fully exited, so the level is now certain to fail and price is guaranteed to close below it next

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