hard · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies
On a balanced session in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), price rotates all day inside a value area between a VAL of 5,560 and a VAH of 5,588, with the POC at 5,574. Late in the session price pushes to 5,590 — just above the VAH — but fails to find acceptance and slips back inside.
Under the 80% rule, what is the highest-probability expectation?
- If price re-enters the value area and trades there for two consecutive brackets, it is likely to rotate across the full value area toward the opposite extreme near the VAL (5,560)
- Price will return to exactly the POC at 5,574 and stop there for the rest of the session
- The failed push above the VAH guarantees a trend day to the upside in the next session
- Acceptance above the VAH is now confirmed, so value will migrate higher into the next session
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