medium · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies
On a balanced session in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), price rotates all day inside a value area between a VAL of 5,560 and a VAH of 5,588, with the POC at 5,574. Late in the session price pushes to 5,590 — just above the VAH — but fails to find acceptance and slips back inside.
Under the 80% rule, what is the highest-probability expectation?
- If price re-enters the value area and trades there for two consecutive brackets, it is likely to rotate across the full value area toward the opposite extreme near the VAL (5,560)
- If price re-enters value and trades there for two consecutive 30-minute brackets, the auction will likely rotate fully across the value area toward the opposite extreme near the POC at 5,574
- Price will return to exactly the POC at 5,574 and stall there for the rest of the regular session, ignoring both the VAH at 5,588 and the VAL at 5,560 boundaries entirely
- The single rejected push above the VAH at 5,588 guarantees an outright trend day to the upside in the very next session, with no further two-sided rotation inside today's value at all
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