hard · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies
Three sessions ago, a stock index future left an untouched, 'naked' point of control at 4501.50 when the market gapped away and never traded back through it. Since then, price has ranged well above that level. A trader argues that because naked POCs act as magnets, price is now overdue to fall all the way back down to 4501.50 imminently, and sizes a short position solely on that expectation.
What is the most accurate critique of this trader's reasoning?
- Naked POCs are reliably filled within exactly three sessions in virtually all cases, so this trade is actually late and should have been placed one full session earlier.
- Naked POCs do tend to attract price eventually, but on no fixed timeline; trading it alone with no other current trigger ignores everything the market has done since.
- Once a POC goes naked, it permanently and completely loses any influence on future price and can be safely ignored as a reference point going forward from that point on.
- The magnet effect described here only ever applies to value area boundaries and never to the point of control itself, so the entire premise of this trade is invalid.
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