medium · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies
A weekly composite profile for ES shows the POC at 5,480 with the Value Area spanning 5,450-5,510. The current day's session has built value between 5,505 and 5,515, entirely above the weekly VAH at 5,510. A mean-reversion trader wants to short from 5,512 back toward the weekly POC at 5,480.
What is the MOST important profile check before entering this trade?
- Whether the current session's developing profile is taking on a balanced D-shape or instead a clearly one-sided, skewed distribution that would point toward an active, one-timeframing trend day.
- Whether the weekly POC at 5,480 has actually been tested and held within any of the most recent three trading sessions, since a long-untested mean tends to act as a far weaker downside magnet for the fade.
- Whether the session high happens to sit at or very close to a prior calendar year's significant high price reference level, which could independently attract responsive selling and confound the profile read.
- Whether the current session has built two or more 30-minute TPO letters above 5,510, which would indicate accepted value above the weekly VAH — potentially invalidating the mean-reversion short thesis.
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