medium · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies

A weekly composite profile for ES shows the POC at 5,480 with the Value Area spanning 5,450-5,510. The current day's session has built value between 5,505 and 5,515, entirely above the weekly VAH at 5,510. A mean-reversion trader wants to short from 5,512 back toward the weekly POC at 5,480.

What is the MOST important profile check before entering this trade?

  1. Whether the current session's developing profile is taking on a balanced D-shape or instead a clearly one-sided, skewed distribution that would point toward an active, one-timeframing trend day.
  2. Whether the weekly POC at 5,480 has actually been tested and held within any of the most recent three trading sessions, since a long-untested mean tends to act as a far weaker downside magnet for the fade.
  3. Whether the session high happens to sit at or very close to a prior calendar year's significant high price reference level, which could independently attract responsive selling and confound the profile read.
  4. Whether the current session has built two or more 30-minute TPO letters above 5,510, which would indicate accepted value above the weekly VAH — potentially invalidating the mean-reversion short thesis.

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