hard · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies
A trader monitoring a 10-year Treasury futures contract observes that the composite volume profile over the past month has a clear HVN centered at 108-16. A macro event causes price to gap below the HVN to 107-24. The developing profile in the post-news session shows price ranging between 107-16 and 107-28 on above-average volume, with the new session POC forming at 107-22.
What is the profile-based interpretation of this post-news session structure?
- The gap below the HVN confirms the trend is lower and the HVN at 108-16 no longer has any analytical relevance
- Price must always return to fill the HVN — the gap below 108-16 will be fully retraced within the same trading day
- A new POC forming below a prior HVN invalidates all prior volume profile levels and requires a complete composite profile rebuild
- The gap below the HVN creates an LVN air pocket between 107-28 and 108-16; the new post-news session building a POC at 107-22 shows the market accepting value at the new lower level — the HVN above remains a significant resistance reference for any attempted recovery
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