medium · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies
ES futures open 12 points above the prior day's Value Area High (VAH) and probe higher for the first 20 minutes before stalling. The session profile is developing as a b-shape (heavy volume at top, thin volume below).
Which mean-reversion scenario is MOST consistent with this structure?
- Price should trend higher because the open above value confirms genuine initiative buying and a lasting shift.
- The 80% rule applies: once price accepts back inside the prior Value Area, it is likely to reach the prior POC.
- The b-shape guarantees a Trend Day higher, so responsive sellers building supply at the VAH are irrelevant.
- Price will simply consolidate near the VAH because the developing POC is migrating steadily up toward the open print.
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