medium · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies

Session A for ES built a D-shaped profile with the POC at 5,440. Session B also built a D-shape, but the POC migrated to 5,465. The composite POC for both sessions combined is at 5,450. On Session C's open, price is at 5,462.

Which profile reference is MOST relevant for a mean-reversion fade back to value?

  1. Session A's POC at 5,440, because it is the oldest established mean in the window and therefore anchors the entire two-session balance and remains the primary value reference.
  2. The composite POC at 5,450, because it represents the volume-weighted center of the two-session period and is the most meaningful mean when price is between the two individual session POCs.
  3. Session B's POC at 5,465, because the most recent session's POC always dominates and structurally supersedes every older value reference in the period, including any aggregated composite mean.
  4. The geometric midpoint between 5,440 and 5,465 (5,452.50), taken as the true structural center of the two-session move regardless of how the underlying traded volume itself happens to be distributed.

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