hard · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies

A profile trader examines ES and identifies a Naked POC (an unvisited prior-session POC) at 5,540, while the current session is trading at 5,580. The session profile is b-shaped, with heavy volume clustered near the session high at 5,585.

Which scenario BEST supports a mean-reversion fade targeting the Naked POC?

  1. Price opens the next session within the current day's value area and immediately breaks to new highs.
  2. The next session builds equal TPO distribution above 5,585, forming new accepted value above the b-shape.
  3. The b-shaped profile's excess low is penetrated, suggesting short-term buyers are trapped and the Naked POC at 5,540 is the next major reference below.
  4. Naked POCs are only relevant as targets when they occur within the current week's composite profile.

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