hard · Volume Profile Analysis trading-strategies

A profile trader examines ES and identifies a Naked POC (an unvisited prior-session POC) at 5,540, while the current session is trading at 5,580. The session profile is b-shaped, with heavy volume clustered near the session high at 5,585.

Which scenario BEST supports a mean-reversion fade targeting the Naked POC?

  1. Price opens the next session inside the current day's value area and then immediately breaks decisively to new session highs above 5,585 on expanding range.
  2. The next session builds equal, balanced TPO distribution above 5,585, forming a fresh area of accepted value that sits cleanly above the original b-shape.
  3. The b-shaped profile's excess low is penetrated, suggesting short-term buyers are trapped and the Naked POC at 5,540 is the next major reference below.
  4. Naked POCs only function as legitimate downside targets when they happen to fall inside the boundaries of the current week's developing composite profile.

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