hard · Volume Spread Analysis climaxes-tests-springs-upthrusts
Following a prolonged decline, a stock prints a wide-spread down-bar closing near its low on the heaviest volume in over a year — a Selling Climax. Over the next eight sessions it carves out a narrow trading range. On session nine, a bar dips below the Climax low by a small margin on volume 1.8× the range average, then reverses to close in the upper third of the range. Three sessions later, another bar dips to within a few cents of session nine's low, on the lowest volume of the entire eight-week structure, and closes at its high.
What is the correct classification of session nine and the later bar, and which one offers the higher-confidence long entry?
- Session nine is a Spring and the later bar a second Spring; the lower-volume penetration is the stronger entry since the level held twice.
- Session nine is a Shakeout given its elevated volume, and the later bar is its Test — the Test is the stronger entry, confirming supply is gone.
- Session nine is a Shakeout and the later bar is a failed retest, since revisiting the same low twice within a few weeks proves that demand cannot hold the range.
- Session nine is a Test of the Climax and the later bar is the actual Shakeout; the low volume on the second bar shows that fresh supply is now entering.
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