medium · Volume Spread Analysis effort-vs-result-spread

A practitioner sees an 'Up-Thrust After Distribution' (UTAD) on a daily chart. The index has been sideways for 6 weeks. The UTAD bar volume is 2.5× average, and the next bar is a wide spread down.

How does this compare to a standard 'Up-Thrust'?

  1. A UTAD requires low volume to be considered valid, whereas a standard Up-Thrust always requires much higher trading volume.
  2. The standard Up-Thrust is generally more dangerous, since it can occur totally unexpectedly within an otherwise healthy, rising market.
  3. The UTAD is more significant because it occurs after the 'cause' of distribution has been built, signaling the start of the mark-down.
  4. They are entirely identical in structural significance and overall market meaning, always leading to the exact same downside price objective.

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