medium · Volume Spread Analysis effort-vs-result-spread

A stock that has been rising for three months produces a wide-spread up-bar that closes on its high with ultra-high volume. The next day, the price opens lower and closes down.

What does this 'Effort versus Result' outcome suggest?

  1. The stock is simply performing a 'test of the breakout' and will resume its rise shortly.
  2. This is a 'Shake-out' designed to trigger short-seller stops before the next leg up.
  3. The professionals are marking the price down to allow 'Strong Holders' to buy more at a discount.
  4. The ultra-high volume contained significant professional selling (supply), and the effort to rise failed to produce follow-through.

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