hard · Volume Spread Analysis effort-vs-result-spread
A stock breaks out of an accumulation zone following a spring. As it approaches an old resistance area from six months ago, volume increases significantly, but the spread narrows and the price closes in the middle of the bar.
What should the practitioner conclude?
- This is 'effort versus result' failure, signaling that the breakout was a trap and the practitioner should short the stock immediately.
- The narrow spread indicates that the market-makers are bullish and marking the price up slowly to avoid attracting retail attention.
- The high volume is a buying climax, signaling the end of the mark-up phase and the start of a new distribution campaign.
- This is 'supply coming in' from locked-in traders at the old resistance; the professional is absorbing this supply, and a low-volume test is now required.
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