hard · Volume Spread Analysis supply-demand-smart-money

During a markup, two consecutive up-thrust-like bars appear at resistance: Bar A is wide-spread, closes off its high, on very high volume; Bar B (next day) is narrow-spread, closes near its high, on very LOW volume. Many readers call Bar A the bearish signal. A senior Wyckoffian argues Bar B is the more damning evidence of distribution being complete.

What is the second-order reasoning?

  1. Bar B's narrow spread and low volume at the same resistance show that demand can no longer lift price even slightly — confirming Bar A's supply was absorbed buying and that the float has already been distributed, so no demand remains to defend higher
  2. Bar B's near-high close on low volume is actually a fresh sign of strength that directly contradicts Bar A's supply signature, so the whole distribution thesis built solely on Bar A's wide bar should now probably be abandoned entirely as flawed
  3. Bar B's low volume simply means the market is resting quietly after Bar A's heavy selling effort at that exact same resistance level, so it carries no real diagnostic weight on its own and Bar A alone remains the only signal worth trusting for direction
  4. Bar B confirms that accumulation rather than distribution is underway at this resistance level, because low volume following any high-volume bar always indicates supply has been fully removed from the zone by determined buyers stepping decisively in to defend it

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