hard · Asset-Backed Securities

An analyst is evaluating an Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for a subprime HEL ABS.

If the model uses a 'Burnout' factor, how will the projected CPR behave after a sustained period of high interest rate incentives (i.e., rates staying well below the pool's note rate)?

  1. The CPR will flip to zero due to the 'Lockout' provision found in subprime hybrid ARMs.
  2. The CPR will increase as 'cured' borrowers eventually find it easier to obtain new financing.
  3. The CPR will gradually decline even if rates remain low, as the most credit-worthy and rate-sensitive borrowers have already refinanced.
  4. The CPR will remain constant because the rate incentive has not changed.

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