hard · Asset-Backed Securities

A FFELP student-loan ABS (loans carrying a ~97-98% federal guarantee) and a private student-loan ABS are otherwise similar. An analyst observes that the FFELP deal's senior notes are rated AAA with strikingly THIN hard credit enhancement, yet the rating agencies' primary modeled risk for that FFELP senior bond is not default loss at all.

What is that primary modeled risk, and why is it the binding constraint?

  1. Basis and reset risk between the loans' SAP-formula yield and the bonds' coupon, because a mismatch can erode excess spread even though the guarantee covers principal default
  2. Maturity (extension) risk: borrower use of deferment, forbearance, and income-driven repayment can stretch cash flows past the bonds' legal final maturity, causing a technical default despite near-full principal recovery
  3. Reinvestment risk on the guarantee proceeds, because claim payments arrive in lump sums that must be reinvested at uncertain short-term rates before being passed to noteholders
  4. Servicer-disruption risk, because losing the federal guarantee requires perfect servicing and a single servicing error voids the guarantee on the entire pool

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