hard · Asset-Backed Securities

An investor holds a premium-priced Agency MBS. If interest rates fall, the investor faces 'Negative Convexity'.

Which scenario best illustrates the mathematical impact on the investor's return?

  1. The investor is forced to pay a 'yield maintenance' penalty to the servicer to compensate for the lost interest income from the prepaying loans.
  2. The 'available funds cap' is triggered, limiting the interest paid to the investor even as market rates for new loans are dropping.
  3. Prepayments accelerate, forcing the investor to reinvest principal at lower rates while the 'premium' paid for the bond is amortized faster than expected, reducing yield.
  4. The bond's duration extends as rates fall, making the position more sensitive to further rate declines and increasing capital gains.

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