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medium · CFA Level I Quantitative Methods

An analyst is evaluating a manager's ability to beat the market. Historically, 40% of managers are 'skilled'. A skilled manager beats the market 70% of the time, while an unskilled manager beats it 30% of the time.

If a manager beats the market this year, the updated probability that the manager is skilled is closest to:

  1. 40%
  2. 70%
  3. 61%

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