hard · FRM Part 1 Financial Markets and Products

A multinational energy firm implements a 'stack-and-roll' strategy to hedge long-dated, fixed-price oil delivery contracts maturing in 10 years. They utilize short-dated front-month futures.

If the oil market shifts from backwardation to a persistent contango, which of the following best describes the mechanical impact on the firm's financial position?

  1. The firm will realize a negative roll yield, as expiring long futures are sold at lower prices than the incoming deferred contracts.
  2. The firm will experience a positive roll yield because the deferred contracts trade at a discount to the front-month contracts.
  3. The margin calls on the futures leg will be perfectly offset by immediate cash inflows from the long-dated OTC delivery contracts.
  4. The firm's basis risk is eliminated because the short-dated futures converge to the spot price at every monthly expiration.

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